Although Trump’s aggressive trade policies do not provide significant direct advantages to Turkey, restrictions imposed on China and Europe create indirect opportunities for Turkey in the US market. Political uncertainties increase economic risks, complicating relations.
Mehmet Hakan ATALAY
Capital Plastics Industrialists and Business People (BAPSID)
Chairman of the Board
Donald Trump’s re-election as US president creates wide-ranging effects not only for America's domestic politics but also for global economic and trade balances. Trump’s protectionist economic understanding, aggressive foreign policy rhetoric, and strategic defense approaches present both opportunities and risks for the Turkish economy. In this article, we will evaluate the potential effects of Trump’s trade policies, his “America First” approach, his threatening rhetoric, and his military-strategic approaches on the Turkish economy.
TARIFFS AND TRADE POLICIES
With Trump’s return to the US presidency, the protectionist trade policies he implemented brought high customs tariffs to many countries worldwide. While these policies put major trade partners like China and Europe in a difficult situation, according to some experts, they created an opportunity for Turkey to become an alternative production base. It is argued that, especially if China experiences a loss in exports, Turkey could gain a more advantageous position in the US market.
Turkey gained a significant competitive advantage by being evaluated in the “lowest tariff bracket” by the US, while these tariffs were primarily directed at other countries. However, experts also warn that increasing protectionism could intensify competitive pressure in global markets and that Turkey might struggle in alternative markets.
“AMERICA FIRST” POLICY AND VOLATILITY
Trump’s “America First” approach could lead to a contraction in global trade and economic slowdown, especially in large markets like the European Union. This situation could negatively affect Turkey indirectly rather than directly. Although its direct impact on US-Turkey trade might be limited, the contraction in the global economy has the potential to weaken Turkey’s exports.
THREATENING RHETORIC
During his first presidential term, Trump had also drawn attention with his harsh rhetoric towards Turkey. Especially his statement “I will totally destroy Turkey’s economy” used during the Brunson crisis in 2018, raised political tension and had a negative impact on the markets. Such statements stand out as elements that increase political risks and damage economic credibility.
MILITARY AND STRATEGIC APPROACHES
The defense dimension in US-Turkey relations became an important agenda item during the Trump era. Turkey, which was removed from the F-35 program due to the deployment of the S-400 system in Turkey, was offered conditions such as neutralizing the system or moving it to a US-controlled base for the program to be reopened. Additionally, discussions were held regarding the lifting of CAATSA sanctions, and new F-16 sales came to the agenda. These developments show that Turkey’s strategic position directly affects the economic dimension in its relations with the US.
CONCLUSION
Trump’s direct positive contribution to the Turkish economy appears limited. Advantages for Turkey are based more on indirect opportunities arising from restrictions imposed on rival economies such as China and Europe. On the other hand, Trump’s aggressive rhetoric and confidence-damaging stance increase political and economic risks; this complicates Turkey-US economic relations.
This content has been translated using artificial intelligence technology.