Selçuk GÜLSÜN
Plastics Industrialists and Businessmen Association (PLASİAD)
Vice Chairman of the Board
The trade war between the US and China has reignited with the introduction of new customs duties. Trade wars, which began in 2018 with the Donald Trump administration's implementation of high customs tariffs against China, led to economic and political tensions between the two countries. All these developments contain both risks and opportunities for Turkey.
The trade war between the US and China has recently reignited with reciprocal moves. US President Donald Trump decided to impose an additional 10 percent customs duty on all products imported from China on February 1, 2025. This decision was met with China's imposition of an additional 10-15 percent customs duty on some products imported from the US.
The Chinese Ministry of Finance announced that an additional 10 percent tax would be applied to crude oil, agricultural equipment, and some automobiles imported from the US, and an additional 15 percent tax on products such as coal and LNG. These additional taxes came into effect as of February 10, 2025.
Considering all these developments, it seems quite difficult for the trade war between the two countries to be resolved in the short term… Global trade balances and market stability may be negatively affected by these developments.
The trade wars between the US and China contain both opportunities and risks for Turkey. Economic policies and strategic moves are critically important for turning this process in Turkey's favor. The deepening trade war between the US and China could create new opportunities for countries like Turkey. There is potential for Turkey to increase its exports in markets vacated by China.
OPPORTUNITIES AND RISKS FOR TURKEY
Due to the additional tariffs imposed on each other, the US and China may try to procure some products from different countries. In this case, Turkey could emerge as an alternative supplier. If China turns to European and developing markets to compensate for the difficulties it faces in exporting to the US market, Turkey's export competitiveness could increase.
Global trade wars can lead to uncertainty in markets, causing the dollar to strengthen. In countries with high foreign debt, like Turkey, this can lead to rising exchange rates and inflationary pressure. If investors avoid risk, capital outflow from developing countries may occur, and Turkey's access to financing may become more difficult.
If trade wars slow down global growth, oil and natural gas prices may fall. Since Turkey is dependent on foreign energy, this situation could have a reducing effect on the current account deficit. However, disruptions in global supply chains could make it difficult for Turkey to access industrial raw materials.
Economic tensions between the US and China may require Turkey to pursue a balanced policy in its relations with both countries. Turkey can leverage the US-China competition to attract strategic investments from both the US and China.
DEVELOPMENT OF TRADE WARS
The trade wars between the US and China began in 2018 with the Donald Trump administration's implementation of high customs tariffs against China. This process led to economic and political tensions between the two countries and created significant impacts on global trade.
The US initiated the process in 2018 by imposing customs duties on steel and aluminum imported from China. China retaliated by imposing additional tariffs on American products. A year later, the two countries entered negotiations multiple times, but disputes continued. The US imposed sanctions on Chinese technology companies such as Huawei.
By 2020, tensions further increased with the pandemic. However, a Phase 1 agreement was signed in January, leading to reductions in some tariffs. Between 2021 and 2024, the Biden administration largely maintained tariffs against China and expanded technology restrictions. Policies aimed at limiting China's progress, especially in semiconductors and artificial intelligence, continued.
As a result of all these developments, the global supply chain was disrupted. A decrease in imports from China led to disruptions in supply chains. Consumer prices rose in the US and China. Currently, tensions between the two countries continue, and greater competition is expected in areas such as technology, artificial intelligence, and the defense industry in the future.
This content has been translated using artificial intelligence technology.